Die Entscheidung ist gefallen: Die Briten verlassen die EU. Und jetzt? Was bedeutet der Brexit für die Finanzmärkte und für die Wirtschaft? Unsere Experten geben Antworten.
The outcome of the UK referendum is a surprise for many observes and market participants. What are in your view the main implications of the UK vote?
In the run-up to the referendum, financial markets had broadly discounted a victory by the Remain camp. The outcome that we woke up to this morning was therefore a clear surprise for many. The initial reaction has been that of a sharp repricing of the now higher political and economic challenges that both the UK and Europe will face going forward, with the currency in particular in the crosshairs
With Sterling trading back at the lowest levels since 1985 versus the USD, could this put upward pressure on UK inflation and pose a challenge for the BoE?
While the fall that we have seen in GBP so far could lead to some upward pressure on UK inflation, the risks to UK growth will also be firmly to the downside, even accounting for the drop in the currency. The Bank of England is therefore likely to focus more on the growth side of the equation, keeping rates low or cutting them even further. This should keep the front end of the UK curve well anchored. Higher inflation concerns could however lead to higher long dated Gilts yields and steeper curves.
What about the Fed? Will the UK result impact US monetary policy?
The Fed had already turned more dovish ahead of the UK referendum, and market expectations have repriced accordingly, with a 50pc chance of one rate hike currently expected by the end of the year. While the direction of travel for the Fed is still one of higher base rates, further hikes are likely to be delayed, with the central bank erring on the side of caution in light of the elevated volatility. It is also worth taking into account the move in the US dollar, which has strengthened thanks to its safe haven features. A stronger USD has the same effect on the US economy as tighter monetary policy, and could be one more reason for the Fed to wait a little longer before hiking rates again.
What do we go from here, and what’s the outlook for fixed income assets in this environment?
With political uncertainty unlikely to come down anytime soon, government bonds and safe havens will remain well supported. UK rates markets are already pricing in a 25bp interest rate cut by the Bank of England, with Gilts that are already rallying sharply this morning, as are German Bunds, with peripheral government bonds underperforming. Volatility will remain high for many months, as the political consequences of the UK vote that are still unclear. Investors should hold their nerve, and realise that, while a cautious approach is still warranted, and a flight towards to safe haven assets is likely to continue in the short term, over a longer time horizon we look for value in credit market, particularly in Investment Grade. As more and more government bonds now offering a negative yield to investors, we find better value in the corporate space, and the selloff that we are seeing allows us to invest in high quality bonds taking advantage of cheaper valuations.
"The implications of the vote to leave are two-fold; we are in the midst of both an economic and a political shock. I believe the political shock will be greater than the economic shock.
From an economic point of view, we can expect lower growth in the UK and across Europe, and that that is now being discounted in equity markets. We also expect a mild recession in the UK over the course of this year and into next year. However, what matters more is that political risk premia will now rise around the world and this implies lower valuations. Today’s result will set off a domino effect of political risk. Whether it’s the US election later this year or the French election next year, investors are going to be far more cautious.
This morning we have seen a knee-jerk reaction from markets, which were poorly positioned ahead of the vote. We may have not seen the end of this; as the dust settles and the fundamentals assert themselves, it’s likely that sterling will continue to weaken against the US dollar and the Euro.
For investors, diversification is key. This means having a balance between sterling and non-sterling assets, alongside bond assets which will provide a store of value. It’s also important to remember that there will always be large global organisations with very large balance sheets which in these times offer savers some protection.
As investors, we use very difficult times like this to buy those sound sustainable businesses that we want to own at a discounted price. However, markets will remain volatile in the short term, so it is essential to tread carefully."
„Die Entscheidung der Wähler in Großbritannien, die EU zu verlassen, hat sowohl die Devisenmärkte als auch die Aktienmärkte überrascht. Das Ausmaß dieser Bewegungen muss man im Kontext einer starken Performance des Pfund Sterling und der UK-Märkte in den vergangenen Wochen betrachten. Dieses Ergebnis führt zu politischer Unsicherheit, die kurzfristig erhöhte Volatilität an den Märkten mit sich bringen dürfte. Anleger sollten jedoch wissen, dass sich solche Ereignisse in der Regel nur marginal auf die langfristigen Aussichten von Unternehmen auswirken. Die Folgen des Referendums auf die britische Binnenwirtschaft und Europa im Allgemeinen sind noch schwer abzuschätzen und werden wahrscheinlich erst im Laufe der Zeit offensichtlich. Sicherlich erhöht der Rückgang des Pfund Sterling die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Sektoren mit hohem Exportanteil und sollte langfristig den Appetit für Investitionen aus dem Ausland erhöhen. Wenn wir den Unternehmenssektor näher betrachten, stellen wir fest, dass Unternehmen über erhebliche Barreserven verfügen, sodass der Spielraum für die weitere Unternehmstätigkeit bestehen bleibt. Das sollte das Ausmaß der Kursrückgänge beschränken, die wir in den kommenden Wochen und Monaten sehen werden.
Wir handeln heute nicht anders als in der vergangenen Woche: Wir nutzen die Chance, die von diesen makroökonomischen Ereignissen ausgehen und konzentrieren uns auf Unternehmen, in die wir langfristig investieren möchten. Der paneuropäische Unternehmenssektor ist in der Tat sehr international aufgestellt – ganz im Gegensatz zum US-amerikanischen oder asiatischen Unternehmenssektor. Selbst in einem Szenario, in dem das Abstimmungsergebnis negativere Auswirkungen auf die Nachfrage in Großbritannien und stärkere Auswirkungen auf Europa halt als wir derzeit glauben, wird dies die Aussichten für europäische Unternehmen nicht so stark beeinflussen wie manche glauben."
"Today’s referendum result has caused a significant degree of uncertainty for markets. In the coming days and weeks (potentially longer), its impact is likely to be felt across asset classes, with heightened volatility spanning the globe. However, the effects of political events like this are part and parcel of investing – and it is important to remember that over the long term, investors are likely to benefit from holding their nerve during these difficult periods: selling in the wake of an event is rarely a good strategy. Remember that asset classes will each respond differently to the situation, so a well diversified multi asset portfolio should help mitigate the volatility. In a period of irrational overreaction by markets, a rational approach is likely to win the day. Volatility is a double-edged sword for investors – so while uncertainty can be negative in the short term, it may also provide attractive opportunities.
While the short-term reaction will continue to develop, the fundamental picture for the European and UK economies has not changed overnight, so experienced investors may find entry points on the back of sell-offs. Of course, after the type of correction we’re likely to see in markets now, it is also important not to compound losses by taking knee-jerk decisions based on today’s result. Indeed, the full picture will take time to establish. Government intervention or central bank action are just two examples of further binary outcomes we could see from here, and it is important to position a portfolio incrementally as the information evolves.
This isn’t the first event of high political uncertainty the world has seen, and it won’t be the last. Ultimately, I think periods like this are where professional active management proves its worth – where teams of trained investment experts can offer a greater degree of stability and intelligent diversification."
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