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EU-Referendum in Großbritannien

Die Entscheidung ist gefallen: Die Briten verlassen die EU. Und jetzt? Was bedeutet der Brexit für die Finanzmärkte und für die Wirtschaft? Unsere Experten geben Antworten.

Nach dem Referendum

Was das Votum der Briten für den EU-Austritt für Anleger bedeutet (PDF)

Topaktuelle Einschätzung zum Ausgang des EU-Referendums vom 24.06.2016

Zur Aufzeichnung der Telefonkonferenz

Kurzkommentare von Investmentexperten

  • Charles McKenzie, Head of Fixed Income

    Charles McKenzieThe outcome of the UK referendum is a surprise for many observes and market participants. What are in your view the main implications of the UK vote?
    In the run-up to the referendum, financial markets had broadly discounted a victory by the Remain camp. The outcome that we woke up to this morning was therefore a clear surprise for many. The initial reaction has been that of a sharp repricing of the now higher political and economic challenges that both the UK and Europe will face going forward, with the currency in particular in the crosshairs

    With Sterling trading back at the lowest levels since 1985 versus the USD, could this put upward pressure on UK inflation and pose a challenge for the BoE?
    While the fall that we have seen in GBP so far could lead to some upward pressure on UK inflation, the risks to UK growth will also be firmly to the downside, even accounting for the drop in the currency. The Bank of England is therefore likely to focus more on the growth side of the equation, keeping rates low or cutting them even further. This should keep the front end of the UK curve well anchored. Higher inflation concerns could however lead to higher long dated Gilts yields and steeper curves.

    What about the Fed? Will the UK result impact US monetary policy?
    The Fed had already turned more dovish ahead of the UK referendum, and market expectations have repriced accordingly, with a 50pc chance of one rate hike currently expected by the end of the year. While the direction of travel for the Fed is still one of higher base rates, further hikes are likely to be delayed, with the central bank erring on the side of caution in light of the elevated volatility. It is also worth taking into account the move in the US dollar, which has strengthened thanks to its safe haven features. A stronger USD has the same effect on the US economy as tighter monetary policy, and could be one more reason for the Fed to wait a little longer before hiking rates again.

    What do we go from here, and what’s the outlook for fixed income assets in this environment?
    With political uncertainty unlikely to come down anytime soon, government bonds and safe havens will remain well supported. UK rates markets are already pricing in a 25bp interest rate cut by the Bank of England, with Gilts that are already rallying sharply this morning, as are German Bunds, with peripheral government bonds underperforming. Volatility will remain high for many months, as the political consequences of the UK vote that are still unclear. Investors should hold their nerve, and realise that, while a cautious approach is still warranted, and a flight towards to safe haven assets is likely to continue in the short term, over a longer time horizon we look for value in credit market, particularly in Investment Grade. As more and more government bonds now offering a negative yield to investors, we find better value in the corporate space,  and the selloff that we are seeing allows us to invest in high quality bonds taking advantage of cheaper valuations.

  • Dominic Rossi, Global CIO of Equities

  • Paras Anand, Head of European Equities

  • James Bateman, Head of Portfolio Management, Fidelity Multi Asset

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