The worst climate scenario currently not expected
To simplify the mapping further, we focus on the three key quadrants in the NGFS scenario matrix, each representing two sets of climate scenarios (Chart 1). Those are:
- Orderly Transition (low physical and transition risks)
- Disorderly Transition (low physical and high transition risks)
- Hot House World (high physical and low transition risks).
As time progresses, the range of outcomes will narrow. But, for now at least, we assume it is still possible for the world to end up pretty much anywhere on this matrix.