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Currency hedging in a fragmenting world

Stefan Rusev

Stefan Rusev - Senior Strategic Asset Allocation Strategist

Global financial and geopolitical shifts are reshaping the dynamics of the US dollar (USD), prompting non-USD investors to reconsider their strategic currency exposure in order to maintain portfolio resilience. These changes could impact the risk-return profile of US equity holdings and influence optimal USD hedging strategies. Here, our Global Macro Team provide an overview of our framework for analysing optimal USD hedge ratios.

Key points

  • Over the past 15 years, the USD has reached historically high levels, but this has now been challenged. This is therefore an opportune moment for non-USD based investors to re-examine their currency exposure.
  • We have developed an analytical framework to evaluate and optimise USD hedge ratios, focused on actionable metrics that balance risk and return considerations.
  • This is an excerpt from a longer white paper from our Global Macro Team on currency hedging in a fragmenting world.

The global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes due to complex macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts. This will require investors to re-assess the behaviour of many assets and the relationships between them to make sure their portfolios are resilient to the new environment. The US dollar (USD) is no exception.

Over the past 15 years, the dollar has reached historically high levels on a trade-weighted basis, benefiting from its safe-haven status and investor demand for US assets due to strong US corporate profits.

However, the world is becoming more economically and financially fragmented. The recent changes to US trade policy are designed to reduce the US trade deficit, encourage onshore production, and break the cycle of foreign exporters’ capital being recycled into USD assets. This, in addition to political pressure on the Federal Reserve, will challenge some of the key foundations of USD strength. Given the significance of US companies in global equity markets, this could meaningfully alter the risk, return, and diversification characteristics of the portfolios of investors based outside the US.

This is an opportune moment for non-USD based investors to re-examine their currency exposure. We believe these changes could lower the diversification benefits of running open USD currency risk and raise the contribution of currency volatility to overall portfolio return volatility, potentially increasing the optimal USD hedging ratio for foreign investors.

Read the full white paper

The key metrics investors should consider when assessing strategic currency hedge ratios

Effect on return

USD valuations and long-term trend The theoretical fair-value of a currency can be an indicator of future return potential, but to realise this value often a catalyst for a sustained change in the trend is needed.
Currency hedging costs Hedging currency risk may incur significant +/- costs that can have a material effect on cumulative portfolio returns over long periods of time (less important for tactical short-term positions).
EURUSD and yield differentials Yield differentials can often drive trends in currency returns either due to the reflection of macroeconomic fundamentals and/or due to carry considerations.

Effect on risk

Currency/Equity correlation A negative currency/equity correlation can serve as a risk dampener in local currency terms and vice versa.
Equity portfolio tracking error Benchmarked and/or peer group relative portfolios may need to consider the associated tracking error from hedging currency risk and potential effect on short-term relative returns.
Equity portfolio volatility Related to the currency/equity correlation, hedged equities may require additional / reduced risk budget at a total portfolio level.
Equity portfolio drawdown characteristics Where unhedged equities are exposed to a defensive currency (relative to local), equity drawdowns may be damped in local currency terms

Source: Fidelity International, August 2025.

currency-hedging-in-fragmenting

Whitepaper: Strategic currency hedging for US equity holdings in a fragmenting world

Global financial and geopolitical shifts are reshaping the dynamics of the US dollar, prompting non-USD investors to reconsider their strategic currency exposure in order to maintain portfolio resilience. Discover insights into how these changes could impact the risk-return profile of US equity holdings and influence optimal USD hedging strategies. Here we provide an overview of our framework for analysing optimal USD hedge ratios for our clients.

Read the full whitepaper

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